新发布:Self-Improving Cost Estimation for Architectural Projects: A Feedback-Driven Approach

人工智能与神经科学

研究

关于可自我改进造价系统的开放研究

Arkesif 既是产品,也是研究项目。目标是衡量学习型造价系统能达到多高的精度,并公开分享方法。

科学方法

我们的核心主张是:造价系统可以通过从用户修正中学习,随时间变得更准确。为使其可衡量,我们记录每一项建议、每一次采纳与拒绝,并用固定测试集和回归测试跟踪模型质量。

  • 神经进化 —— 建议规则会在历史项目上检验并不断改进
  • 神经可塑性 —— 每一次修正都会重塑单价记忆
  • 持续学习 —— 随着新项目加入,模型始终保持最新

学习闭环

采集 → 标注 → 训练 → 评估 → 影子模式发布 → 重复。新模型只提供建议;未经用户确认,不会写入任何数据。

系统架构

一次修正如何回到模型

  1. 1

    应用

  2. 2

    事件日志

  3. 3

    特征存储

  4. 4

    模型服务

  5. 5

    建议

  6. 6

    反馈

↺ 反馈 → 事件日志

结果

基于八个月现场使用的指标

平均单价偏差(MAPE)

17.4% → 9.1%

建议采纳率

82%

留出测试集

96

研究项目数

214

单价偏差随时间的变化

17.4
M1
16.1
M2
14.8
M3
13.2
M4
11.9
M5
10.6
M6
9.8
M7
9.1
M8

每月平均百分比偏差,随反馈闭环运行而下降。

数据集

现场使用收集的数据会分为训练集与评估集。个人数据被剔除,仅保留清单项、数量、单价与上下文。

  • 八个月现场使用中的 214 个住宅与教育项目
  • 约 46,000 条清单项记录,个人数据已剔除
  • 96 个留出项目,训练中从未使用

伦理与隐私

要让学习型系统可被衡量,就必须公开说明数据如何被使用。

  • 公司数据按行级隔离;模型按公司分别运行。
  • 未经用户确认,不会向数据写入任何内容。
  • 学习贡献默认开启,一键即可关闭;共享模型仅使用匿名化数据训练。

论文与出版物

4 项 · 含预印本

  1. [1]进行中2026

    From Takeoff to Classroom: Architectural Cost Literacy with AI-Assisted Tools

    A. Yılmaz, M. Demir, E. Kaya

    Under review

    EducationCost literacyAI tutor
    显示摘要

    摘要

    This work-in-progress examines the use of an AI-assisted takeoff platform in architectural and civil engineering education. We describe a classroom deployment and a study design measuring whether students taught with the tool develop cost literacy faster than a control group, and whether the tool's explanatory assistant functions as an effective tutor. Preliminary observations and the full measurement protocol are reported.

    PDF
  2. [2]预印本2026

    Neuroevolution of Rule Sets for Quantity Takeoff Assistance

    A. Yılmaz, S. Aksoy

    arXiv:2609.01234 [cs.AI]

    NeuroevolutionRule learningTakeoff
    显示摘要

    摘要

    We apply neuroevolution to the rule sets that drive takeoff assistance — the heuristics deciding which items a project of a given type is likely to require. Candidate rule populations are mutated and recombined against a fitness function combining item-set precision, recall and expert agreement. On a held-out corpus of 96 projects, evolved rules reduce false-positive suggestions by 38% relative to hand-written heuristics while raising recall by 6 points. We discuss why evolving structure, rather than only weights, matters in this domain.

  3. [3]已发表2026

    Self-Improving Cost Estimation for Architectural Projects: A Feedback-Driven Approach

    A. Yılmaz, E. Kaya, M. Demir

    Journal of Construction Informatics, 12(2), 141–163

    Self-improving systemsCost estimationFeedback loops
    显示摘要

    摘要

    We study whether a cost-estimation system used daily by quantity surveyors can improve its own accuracy from ordinary usage signals. Instead of relying only on curated labels, we treat every user override as a supervision signal and every accepted or rejected suggestion as implicit feedback. Over an eight-month deployment across 214 residential and educational projects, mean absolute percentage error on unit prices fell from 17.4% to 9.1%, with the largest gains on the items the incumbent price library represented poorly. We describe the data-collection architecture, the feedback loop, and the safeguards that keep a human in control.

    PDFDOI: 10.1234/jci.2026.0214
  4. [4]已发表2025

    Explainable Price Suggestions in Construction Takeoff: A Human-in-the-Loop Evaluation

    E. Kaya, Z. Şahin, A. Yılmaz

    Proceedings of the 42nd Conference on Computing in Civil Engineering

    ExplainabilityHuman-in-the-loopTrust
    显示摘要

    摘要

    Price suggestions are only useful if surveyors can justify them. We present a human-in-the-loop evaluation of an explainable suggestion interface that surfaces the provenance of each estimate — the contributing past projects, the regional average and the confidence band. In a controlled study with 34 professionals, explainability increased acceptance of correct suggestions by 22% and reduced acceptance of incorrect ones by 31%, indicating that explanation quality, not raw accuracy alone, governs trust.

    PDFDOI: 10.1234/ccce.2025.0877

合作

我们欢迎与高校、研究团队和行业协会合作。欢迎就数据、方法或联合发表与我们联系。

联系我们