科学方法
我们的核心主张是:造价系统可以通过从用户修正中学习,随时间变得更准确。为使其可衡量,我们记录每一项建议、每一次采纳与拒绝,并用固定测试集和回归测试跟踪模型质量。
- 神经进化 —— 建议规则会在历史项目上检验并不断改进
- 神经可塑性 —— 每一次修正都会重塑单价记忆
- 持续学习 —— 随着新项目加入,模型始终保持最新
新发布:Self-Improving Cost Estimation for Architectural Projects: A Feedback-Driven Approach
阅读关于可自我改进造价系统的开放研究
Arkesif 既是产品,也是研究项目。目标是衡量学习型造价系统能达到多高的精度,并公开分享方法。
我们的核心主张是:造价系统可以通过从用户修正中学习,随时间变得更准确。为使其可衡量,我们记录每一项建议、每一次采纳与拒绝,并用固定测试集和回归测试跟踪模型质量。
采集 → 标注 → 训练 → 评估 → 影子模式发布 → 重复。新模型只提供建议;未经用户确认,不会写入任何数据。
一次修正如何回到模型
应用
事件日志
特征存储
模型服务
建议
反馈
↺ 反馈 → 事件日志
基于八个月现场使用的指标
平均单价偏差(MAPE)
17.4% → 9.1%
建议采纳率
82%
留出测试集
96
研究项目数
214
单价偏差随时间的变化
每月平均百分比偏差,随反馈闭环运行而下降。
现场使用收集的数据会分为训练集与评估集。个人数据被剔除,仅保留清单项、数量、单价与上下文。
要让学习型系统可被衡量,就必须公开说明数据如何被使用。
4 项 · 含预印本
A. Yılmaz, M. Demir, E. Kaya
Under review
摘要
This work-in-progress examines the use of an AI-assisted takeoff platform in architectural and civil engineering education. We describe a classroom deployment and a study design measuring whether students taught with the tool develop cost literacy faster than a control group, and whether the tool's explanatory assistant functions as an effective tutor. Preliminary observations and the full measurement protocol are reported.
A. Yılmaz, S. Aksoy
arXiv:2609.01234 [cs.AI]
摘要
We apply neuroevolution to the rule sets that drive takeoff assistance — the heuristics deciding which items a project of a given type is likely to require. Candidate rule populations are mutated and recombined against a fitness function combining item-set precision, recall and expert agreement. On a held-out corpus of 96 projects, evolved rules reduce false-positive suggestions by 38% relative to hand-written heuristics while raising recall by 6 points. We discuss why evolving structure, rather than only weights, matters in this domain.
A. Yılmaz, E. Kaya, M. Demir
Journal of Construction Informatics, 12(2), 141–163
摘要
We study whether a cost-estimation system used daily by quantity surveyors can improve its own accuracy from ordinary usage signals. Instead of relying only on curated labels, we treat every user override as a supervision signal and every accepted or rejected suggestion as implicit feedback. Over an eight-month deployment across 214 residential and educational projects, mean absolute percentage error on unit prices fell from 17.4% to 9.1%, with the largest gains on the items the incumbent price library represented poorly. We describe the data-collection architecture, the feedback loop, and the safeguards that keep a human in control.
E. Kaya, Z. Şahin, A. Yılmaz
Proceedings of the 42nd Conference on Computing in Civil Engineering
摘要
Price suggestions are only useful if surveyors can justify them. We present a human-in-the-loop evaluation of an explainable suggestion interface that surfaces the provenance of each estimate — the contributing past projects, the regional average and the confidence band. In a controlled study with 34 professionals, explainability increased acceptance of correct suggestions by 22% and reduced acceptance of incorrect ones by 31%, indicating that explanation quality, not raw accuracy alone, governs trust.
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